The Last Podcast

According to a prediction by eMarkter, the audience for podcasts will be growing, and with it, the market for podcast advertising:

”As the US podcasting industry matures it is unquestionably creating a listening audience,” says Paul Verna, eMarketer Senior Analyst and author of the new report, Podcast Audience: Seeking Riches in Niches, “And along with a larger audience comes increases in advertising spending tied to podcasts.”

I agree with Rizzn over at Mashable that the numbers are a bit suspect (though for different reasons). I love podcasting, but I just don’t see the growth that eMarketer is predicting.

According to eMarkter, there is growing awareness of podcasting, that, together with a greater ease of consumption, an increased penetration of portable players, and the evolution of smart phones and availability of more affordable data plans, will result in a doubling of the podcasting audience in the next two years.

My analysis:

I simply don’t buy the basic assumptions of eMarketer’s analysis:

As far as I can see, the ease of consumption hasn’t changed since Apple added podcast support to iTunes. At best, the ease of consumption has stagnated.

As far as I can see, the market for iPods and mp3 players is reaching a saturation point. The latest data from Apple seems to underscore this.

Smart phones are great, but few allow for easy access to podcasts. Indeed, given the large file size, most mobile network providers would probably prefer you don’t synch your podcasts while you are on their network. Even the iPhone doesn’t do this. Given the total control most providers have over the software on their phones, this won’t change much in the near future.

I might be able to agree that more people today are aware of podcasting than a few years ago. I am not sure that that awareness translates into actual downloads, though. While a network like NPR can probably drive quite an audience to podcasts, only a few listeners might be interested in downloading some ‘morning zoo’ show.

Don’t get me wrong, I believe that there is money to be made in podcasting right now. Most of the podcasts I listen to don’t have advertising. However, as of now and for the foreseeable future, podcasting will remain a niche market - a niche market with a decent size (= about the size of Holland), but not one that will double its audience in the next two years.

(as an aside: eMarketer’s total podcast audience number seems to include people who only download one podcast a year. The active number of podcast listeners (3+ downloads a week) is only about a third of that.)