Looks like the latest comScore numbers point to a decline in total user number for pretty much every social network, except for Facebook. However, even though Facebook keeps growing (though not rapidly), its user engagement has been down lately. Even though the number of users doubled over the last year, the people who are joining now are basically only lurkers who are far less engaged.
Here is how the inimitable Register describes the reason for this phenomenon:
Join, accumulate dozens of semi-friends, spy on a few exes for a bit, play some Scrabulous, get bored, then get on with your life, occasionally dropping in to respond to a message or see some photos that have been posted.
And for most people whose name is not Robert Scoble, that’s about it. Even though Scoble finally talked me into joining Facebook, I barely ever go there anymore.
All those widgets are great for a while, but in the end, Facebook really is just the internet with training wheels. As users get a taste of the fact that they can make the net their own, they will want to go off by themselves, leaving Papa Zuckerberg behind.
Where is the mission critical use case, other than entertainment? Facebook and its ilk do extend the interaction model, and new things will come of it; if it vanished, would web be any the poorer?
http://bizcast.typepad.com/clients/2007/09/changes-in-tech.html
Alan, the new thing is here, with the interaction model extended to request-driven multi-media activity. Start in:
[oooops, sorry that should have "/en" in it]
http://www.cinnaminta.com/en/boredwithfacebook.htm