Robert Scoble today has a pretty good post on the end of Kiko.com. After discussion his dislike for the Google Calendar, he points out what has to become pretty obvious to a lot of players right now:
Does it [the Kiko shutdown] predict more failures?
Yes.
There are simply too many companies chasing too few users.
I can not keep up with the flow in my email box. I’ll share some of that with you real soon.
Getting the cool kids to try your technology isn’t the same thing as having a long-term business proposition.
And that is exactly the crux of the problem. Maybe you get featured on TechCrunch, maybe you get to use your VC money to sponsor a party, but getting mainstream traction is so much more difficult than that. And even mainstream exposure doesn’t always help. Just look at Odeo, they got a NYTimes expose on the day they opened shop. Now, a year later, they are still hanging in there (against my prediction), but where is their market? Where is the business model? How much money do they have left? When are they going to close shop?
Here is when I would invest in a Web 2.0 company that seems to be shooting for mainstream success: when I hear the company name being brought up by one of my freshman students. Until then, I have to assume that they have some mindshare with the early adopters, but definitely no more than that and definitely not enough to become profitable.
Also read:
- OneStartups - Hindsight 2.0: Lessons From A Failed Web 2.0 Startup
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